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Sunday, March 13, 2011

Cheltenham - Day 1


Cheltenham Stats Day 1

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Betting & Trends

Age: 5-7 age range has won every race over the past five years. 5 & 6 year olds dominant.Odds: Winners priced between 6/1 and 40/1. No favourite has won the race in the past five years, making this a good lay betting prospect.Jockey: Different jockies have won each of the races over the past five years.Trainer: The race title has been passed around between top national hunt trainers, without any winning the race more than once in the past five years.Supreme Novices' Hurdle Tip: Antepost favourites for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle are priced short enough to make lay betting the best strategy for earning a return from this race.


Arkle Challenge Trophy Betting & Trends

Age: All winners over last five years aged between 5 and 7. 7 year olds dominant with four wins from the last 5 races.Odds: Last five winners priced between 7/2 and 8/1. No wins by antepost favourites during this time.Jockey: Robert Thornton has taken the Arkle twice in the past five years.Trainer: Alan King has won the race twice in the past five years. Arkle Challenge Trophy Tip: Keep back bets in the recent winners' odds margin, focussing on non-favourites. Race provides good value on each-way and place bets. A good laying opportunity but comes with high liability.




William Hill Trophy Betting & Trends

Weight: Winners of last five races weighted between 10st 2lbs and 10st 9lbs.Age: Winner of last five races aged from 7 to 10 years of age. 7 year olds the dominant age group with 3 wins.Odds: Winners of past five races priced between 5/1 and 50/1. Four of these priced between 5/1 and 8/1 with no wins by an antepost favourite.Jockey: No jockey has won the race more than once in the past five years.Trainer: While the William Hill Trophy has gone to a top stable for each of the past five races, no trainer has held onto the title.William Hill Trophy Tip: Use the betting markets as a guide with each-way and place bets on entries priced 5/1 to 8/1. Lay the favourite at Betfair if you're willing to put up the liability.


Champion Hurdle Betting & Trends

Age: Last five winners aged between 5 and 8. 8-year-olds the dominant age group with 2 wins in this period.Odds: Winners of the last five races priced between 7/4 and 22/1. A favourite last won the Champion Hurdle in 2006.Jockey: Top jockeys have a good record in this race, but none has managed to repeat a win in the past five years.Trainer: Smaller stables have had some success in the Champion Hurdle, but no trainer has won the race more than once since Aidan O'Brien's run of victories with Istabraq between '98 and 2000.Champion Hurdle Tip: This race tends to produce a good short-priced antepost favourite that will rarely go on to win. This means there's good value and low liability to be had for lay bettors looking to lay the favourite at betting exchanges.

Cross Country Chase Betting & Trends

Weight: Winners of the Cross Country Handicap Chase have carried weights ranging from 10st 2lbs to top weight of 11st 12lbs. Weights therefore seem to have little effect on the outcome of this handicap.Age: Experience counts in this race, with all winners between 9- and 12-years of age.Odds: Unlike most handicaps, the Cross Country Handicap Chase consistently produces short odds winners. Two antepost favourites have taken the race in the past five years, with all winners priced under 4/1.Jockey: Nina Carberry has taken two wins in this race in the past five years.Trainer: Edna Bolger has an excellent record in the Cross Country Handicap Chase, taking two race wins and a place in the past five years.Cross Country Handicap Chase Tip: Winners of this race tend to be priced too low to provide value on an each-way or place bet. Punters should consider backing two entries priced below the 4/1 margin. Use an odds comparison service to secure the best prices.




David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Betting & Trends

Age: The winners of both races to date have been 5-year-olds, which suggests that this is a race for more youthful mares.Odds: The winners of this race cover a 2/1 – 20/1 margin. While too few races have been run to establish a major trend, punters can expect winning odds to cover a large margin in keeping with trends in other handicap races.Jockey: No major jockey trends have emerged in the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle to date.Trainer: Both races to date have gone to top trainers, with Willie Mullins and Donald McCain Jr. claiming a title apiece.David Nicholson Mares Hurdle Tip: We’d expect wins by antepost favourites in this race to be the exception rather than the norm. With antepost favourites likely to be priced under 4/1 this race presents a low liability lay betting opportunity.

Jewson Novices’ Chase Betting & Trends

Weight: Three of the last five race winners have carried 10st 11lbs, with winner weights ranging from 10st 4lbs to 10st 11lbs.Age: 7-year-olds have been the dominant age group in the Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase.Odds: Winners of the last five races have been priced from 9/2 to 20/1 with one antepost favourite taking victory in this period. The majority of race winners have been priced under 10/1.Jockey: The winner of the Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase is usually ridden by a top jockey, however, no jockey has managed to ride more than one winner in this race in the last five years.Trainer: This tough race tends to go to a different stable every year, although entries from top trainers do tend to perform well in the race.Jewson Novices’ Handicap Chase Tip: Race trends suggest that back bets should be placed on entries priced under 10/1 with each-way or place bets on a spread of horses the best option. Laying the favourite is also a good tactic, but comes with a large liability due to the high prices favourites trade at in this race.

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